Agent-based Modeling the Spread of African Swine Fever on a Regional Scale and Evaluating Its Control Measures using a Cloud-based Simulator

Abstract

African Swine Fever (ASF) is a highly contagious disease affecting pigs, with mortality rates varying based on host, viral dose, and transmission route. Since its first detection in Vietnam in 2019, ASF has spread rapidly, particularly among small-scale farms with limited biosecurity, causing severe economic losses. While pig movement studies have explored disease transmission, there is limited research on ASF control strategies using cloud-based multi-agent simulations. This study develops a novel multi-agent ASF spread model on the GAMA simulation platform, focusing on Hanoi, Vietnam’s second-largest pig-producing region. The model allows for scenario analysis by adjusting direct and indirect transmission factors. By deploying simulations of six control measures, such as movement restriction and culling, with an intuitively interactive map interface, the unseen behaviors and interactions of agents are revealed. Results highlight its potential in aiding policymakers to design effective ASF outbreak control strategies.